In this edition, we examine uncertainty as a constant feature of modern business and explore how leaders of organisations can prepare for disruption before it occurs. From geopolitical shocks to workforce and technology challenges, we discuss the capabilities that build resilience—and the common pitfalls, including complacency and poor decision-making, that often prevent organisations from being ready when uncertainty arrives.

The Certainty of Uncertainty

“One cannot manage change. One can only be ahead of it.” — Peter Drucker

In today’s VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous) world, organisations can no longer rely on prediction alone; success increasingly depends on building resilience and preparing for uncertainty before it arrives.

Uncertainty is a cyclical phenomenon, a part of life and by extension, the business world. If there is one thing every business leader can predict with confidence, it would be uncertainty. Uncertainty can appear in different forms, as market shifts, technology evolution, changes in economic cycles, geopolitical tensions, customer expectations and even industry regulations. The goal for any business leader is to be prepared for change in whatever format it might appear.

The irony is that even though uncertainty is rarely the surprise, our lack of preparedness often is. This is often due to the focus on the demands the day to day running organisations often require, current projects and wins. When business is performing well, projects are progressing, customers are satisfied, and financial targets are being met, leadership attention naturally shifts towards sustaining current success. Operational priorities, present results, and immediate opportunities consume time, energy, and resources. The question now is how do we balance the demands of today with the preparations for tomorrow?

A Lesson from Today’s Business Environment

Recent tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, have highlighted how quickly geopolitical events can disrupt global business operations. Concerns over the Strait of Hormuz—a route that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption—immediately influenced oil prices, shipping costs, insurance premiums, and investor confidence.

The key lesson is not that organisations should have predicted the conflict, but that they should have been prepared for disruption.

Saudi Aramco provides a compelling example of resilience in practice. Following the 2019 attacks on its Abqaiq and Khurais facilities, approximately 5.7 million barrels per day of production—about 5% of global oil supply—was temporarily disrupted.

However, prior investments in business continuity, emergency response, operational redundancy, and strategic inventories enabled the company to respond rapidly. Fires were extinguished within seven hours, production at Khurais resumed within 24 hours, partial capacity was restored within 48 hours, and normal operations returned within about 10 days. Importantly, no customer shipments were cancelled, despite oil prices rising by nearly 15–20% immediately after the attacks.

Aramco’s response later earned international recognition through a Global Business Continuity Award.

In contrast, many shipping companies operating near the Strait of Hormuz during the 2019 tanker attacks were forced into costly reactive measures, including additional security arrangements, schedule changes, route adjustments, and higher war-risk insurance premiums While most remained operational, they incurred significant unplanned costs due to limited preparedness.

More recently, amid the 2025 Iran-Israel escalation, Shell confirmed it had contingency plans in place for a potential Hormuz disruption, including enhanced vessel monitoring, risk assessments, and supply-chain response measures. This preparation enabled it to maintain operational confidence and reassure stakeholders despite market uncertainty.

The broader evidence is compelling. PwC reports that 96% of organisations experienced disruption within a two-year period, while 89% consider resilience a strategic priority. Deloitte found that organisations investing in preparedness are better able to adapt and recover during crises. Similarly, the Business Continuity

Institute reports that 65.5% of organisations increased resilience investments and 95% now adopt incident-agnostic planning approaches.

In an increasingly uncertain world, competitive advantage belongs not to organisations that predict every disruption, but to those that are prepared to respond when disruption occurs.

Moving from Reaction to Readiness: How to Prepare Ahead of Uncertainty

If uncertainty is inevitable, resilience must be intentional. The organisations that navigate disruption most successfully are not those that predict every crisis; they are those that build the capabilities, structures, and culture needed to adapt regardless of what occurs. Industry research consistently shows that organisations investing in resilience, preparedness, and business continuity capabilities are better positioned to absorb shocks, recover quickly, and maintain stakeholder confidence during disruption.

1. Identify Critical Business Dependencies

Understand what is essential to delivering products and services. Regularly assess critical suppliers, customers, technology platforms, data assets, key personnel, infrastructure, logistics networks, and financial dependencies.

2. Conduct Scenario Planning

Rather than attempting to predict specific events, prepare for plausible disruptions and their consequences. Leading resilience frameworks increasingly advocate preparing for the effects of disruption rather than trying to forecast every possible event.

3. Develop and Test Business Continuity Plans

Business continuity plans should clearly define recovery priorities, crisis escalation procedures, communication protocols, recovery objectives, and key responsibilities. Importantly, plans should be tested regularly through simulations and exercises.

4. Build Organisational Agility

Preparedness is as much about culture as it is about planning. Organisations that empower faster decision-making, encourage innovation, and foster collaboration are often better able to adapt during periods of uncertainty.

5. Strengthen Supply Chain Resilience

Recent disruptions have highlighted the importance of supplier diversification, alternative sourcing arrangements, strategic inventory management, and ongoing supplier risk assessments.

6. Invest in Intelligence and Early Warning Systems

Monitoring geopolitical developments, regulatory change, cyber threats, economic indicators, and emerging technologies enables organisations to identify risks early and respond proactively.

7. Develop Crisis Leadership Capability

Leaders should be equipped to make decisions with incomplete information, communicate transparently, manage stakeholder expectations, and maintain organisational confidence during uncertainty.

8. Embed Resilience into Governance

Boards and executive teams should routinely review emerging risks, business continuity readiness, cyber resilience, supply chain vulnerabilities, and organisational recovery capabilities. Resilience should be treated as a strategic investment rather than a compliance requirement.

Obstacles to Moving from Reaction to Readiness

While most organisations recognise the importance of resilience, many struggle to prepare proactively for uncertainty. The challenge is often less about awareness and more about organisational and leadership barriers that discourage long-term thinking.

Short-Term Focus

Immediate operational and financial priorities often take precedence over investments in business continuity, succession planning, scenario testing, and resilience. As a result, organisations may optimise for efficiency while increasing their exposure to future disruption.

Overconfidence and Complacency

Organisations that have not experienced major disruptions can fall into the trap of believing existing processes, suppliers, technologies, or talent pipelines will continue to perform as expected. This mindset often delays contingency planning until it is too late.

The HIPPO Effect

One of the most significant barriers to preparedness is the HIPPO—the Highest Paid Person’s Opinion. In uncertain environments, decisions can become overly influenced by senior leaders rather than evidence, data, or diverse perspectives.

Whether the issue is workforce planning, succession planning, supply chain resilience, or emerging technologies such as AI, decisions based on hierarchy rather than facts can create blind spots and leave organisations vulnerable. Resilient organisations actively challenge assumptions, encourage constructive debate, and rely on evidence-based planning rather than confidence alone.

Poor Scenario Planning

Many organisations prepare for a single expected future rather than multiple possible futures. Effective readiness requires testing different scenarios and developing flexible response options before disruption occurs.

Siloed Thinking

Risk management, workforce planning, cybersecurity, and strategic planning often operate independently. This fragmentation can prevent organisations from identifying interconnected risks and coordinating effective responses.

Limited Leadership Attention

Preparedness is frequently viewed as a compliance exercise rather than a strategic priority. Without active executive and board involvement, resilience initiatives can become underfunded and overlooked.

Failure to Learn

Many organisations successfully manage a crisis but fail to embed the lessons learned. Once the immediate threat passes, vulnerabilities are often forgotten, increasing the likelihood of repeating the same mistakes.

Overcoming the Barriers

Moving from reaction to readiness requires organisations to challenge assumptions, break down silos, embrace data-driven decision-making, and prepare for multiple possible futures. Ultimately, uncertainty is too important to be managed by opinion alone. The organisations that thrive are those willing to question the HIPPO, invest in resilience, and prepare before disruption occurs.

A Note to Remember

Reactivity is the bane of any organisation whose goal is to be ahead of uncertainty. The difference is in the thought process;

Reactive organisations ask:

“What should we do now that disruption has happened?”

Resilient organisations ask:

“What capabilities do we need today to succeed regardless of what happens tomorrow?”

Competitive advantage increasingly belongs to organisations that prepare before disruption occurs, adapt rapidly when it does, and emerge stronger because they planned ahead.

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